Population
- As expected, population growth is high in the Pakenham
corridor – almost 15%, whilst the rural south
is around State average at 1.6% and the hills have
only a marginal rate of increase (0.6%). The Shire
population is expected to almost double from 60,738
to 118,000 in the next 15 years.
- Likewise the number of houses has been increasing
at a similar rate. However, Cardinia has a much higher
proportion of separate houses (93%) compared with the
State average (79%), and a much lower proportion of
semi-detatched, terrace or apartment units (5% vs 20%
statewide). So what does all this growth mean for the
regions landscape in 15 years time?
- The population is not as multicultural as other parts
of the State. Do we care? Is it likely to stay that
way? What impact does this have, and what does it say
about our society and what image does it convey?
Economic Health
- Levels of education are somewhat lower than for the
rest of the state with school retention rates as low
as 59% in Pakenham compared with an average 85% in
other South Eastern suburbs. But 39% of Cardinia’s
youth were enrolled in vocational training courses
and apprenticeships (largely for the retail and construction
workforce) as opposed to seeking higher education.
- Employment levels are exceptionally good, (although
salaries are marginally lower than the State average).
The unemployment rate has run at only 3.2% compared with
5.4% for the rest of the State. Well done!
- However, Cardinia does not appear to be well placed
for the future knowledge economy? The ratio of skilled
occupations was stable at 53% over a five year period
which was significantly below the Melbourne Statistical
District average of 85.7%, and our education and training
is not aligned to future occupations. So what does this
say about sustainability of employment in the growth
corridor?
- Yet the industry structure profile indicator for future
growth is better by comparison, 76.1 versus 74 for the
Melbourne Statistical Division. So we are doing something
right; but for whom? And how do we ensure that Cardinia
residents take advantage of the situation and enjoy the
benefits in the future?
Natural Environment
- Cardinia residents appear to be gas guzzlers – only
7.4% use public transport. But there was a vast difference
in our satisfaction with public transport across the
Shire from 9% in the Hills, 25% in rural regions to 40%
in the growth corridor. But why? And what is the solution – more
roads? more bus services? better planning that requires
less transport, or easier means of transport, or facilities
that cater for alternate forms of transport? And what
affects would alternate solutions have on our environment,
our culture, our way of living?
- Although the Cardinia region is relatively undeveloped
(3% zoned urban residential and less than 1% rural residential)
a measurement of the health of the natural environment
(stream quality) is generally rated as poor. So what
does this say for future growth that has 7% of land zoned
urban residential?
∑ And river health has had dramatic effects on
Western Port sea grass (and as a consequence fishing
viability). But this has been improving, so we are starting
to bring things back into balance. So perhaps massive
residential growth can be catered for?
- But not if we don’t reduce our waste production.
We produce an average 667kgs of waste landfill per year
compared with an average 540kgs for the State. This produces
351kgs of greenhouse gases per household (cw 284kgs elsewhere).
We currently recycle 26% (which is proportionally equivalent
to elsewhere in the State), but the State has a target
of 65%, so we still have a long way to go.
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- And we chew up more energy (6.56MWh) than other outer
suburbs (5.9MWh), and this generates a further 911 tonnes
of greenhouse gases per household. So what does this
tell us about our housing design and lifestyle habits?
- So overall, despite our regional setting, Cardinia does
not appear to be nature sensitive. We drive everywhere
and burn up fuel, produce a huge amount of waste and we
don’t conserve energy. But it is not all bad; the
signs are that we may be improving – let’s
hope the figures look better next time!
Social Vitality
- Cardinia residents feel comfortable in their community
and appear reasonably active in community life. We have
a generally low crime rate (burglary: .5% vs .7% statewide;
and violence: .1% vs .2%) and the population tends to rate
its sense of safety as good or excellent (68%); although
child safety is obviously a concern (only 36% rated good
or excellent). What gives rise to this concern?
- We obviously have a reasonable social setting, and it
would appear that we get on well with our community. However,
we are somewhat less open to outside influences (79% for
multicultural inclusion vs 87% statewide). So what does
this say about our culture, openness, inclusion and our
flexibility for change?
- We also tend to be less involved in local decision making
than we desire (20% involved vs 24% statewide vs 47% expressing
interest). Even with this expressed commitment, we still
have a lower rate of residents who actually actively volunteer
(45% vs 51% statewide).
- So what does this say about community engagement? And
what effect does this have upon the economic benefits derived
from unpaid work to the community, and on the local/market
economy? Our actions don’t appear to match our desires?
What is the reason for this? Or are we just stick-in-the-muds
who don’t get involved?
Wellbeing
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